Gas Turbines Jet Through Recession

The power and efficiency inherent in gas turbines is so attractive, even the Great Recession can’t slow down their production. Improvements in gas turbine efficiencies and reliability continue to amass seventy years after its invention. Witnessing how the gas turbine industry weathered the stormiest years in half a century should be an insight into how the technology will fare in the coming years.

The total worldwide value of production for all gas turbines in 2009 was $40.5 billion, up 13% from 2008, according to Forecast International. The entire gas turbine industry could grow to $51.9 billion by 2014, which is a 28% increase over 2009 and would exceed the peak of $48.3 billion in 2001, during the "irrational exuberance" of power plant expansion that followed electric utility deregulation.

Funding the Future

Aside from the 2001 spike, the gas turbine industry is dominated by the aviation sector. Jet engines and turboprop engines for commercial and military manned aircraft account for $27.0 billion in production for 2009, an 18% increase over 2008 and 67% of the 2009 total value of production. Commercial aviation is by far the larger portion at $22.5 billion, about five times that of military gas turbine engines.

Military engines are more glamorous, however, and Pratt & Whitney and General Electric dominate that market with engines on fighter jets and transport planes. Advanced technology developed in military jet engines has often migrated to commercial jet engines and non-aviation gas turbines and improved their performance. So fighter jet programs funded by Congress, which really push the envelope, may have an enormous impact on the future even if their planes never fly.

Eager For Less

Despite higher jet fuel costs, in 2009 the commercial jet engine production was up 23% from 2008. Narrow-body single-aisle jets represent the biggest and the most lucrative market for commercial engine manufacturers. Engines that promise to markedly improve fuel consumption — perhaps by as much as 16% — and lower noise are being selected by more and more customers, including Chinese and Russian manufacturers who plan to use them in new narrow-body aircraft slated entry into service in the next 5 years.

The reduction in both fuel consumption and noise is an unequaled combination. There is at least one case in the past where engine manufacturers, faced with a design choice of meeting the onerous noise restrictions of the London airports or a reduction in fuel consumption, chose the former. The reduced fuel consumption wouldn’t sell engines, the executives reasoned, if an airplane fitted with one couldn’t land at one of the world’s major airports.

Airline customers burdened with high fuel costs are also clamoring for re-engining narrow-body aircraft being produced now, rather than waiting for all-new aircraft in the distant future, causing manufacturers to research or consider offering it.

Reliable Power

Growth was a bit slower on the non-aviation gas turbine side. That market was $16.6 billion in 2009, up 6% from 2008, $11.1 billion of which was for electricity generation. Marine power and propulsion, which make up $416 million, and mechanical drive such as natural gas pipeline compressors comprise the rest of the non-aviation segment.

Simple-cycle and combined-cycle gas turbine power plants fueled by natural gas have made a huge impact on the world’s electrical generation market. In some parts of the United States, particularly Texas and California, 50% of electricity is produced by gas turbine power plants. With fast starting, simple-cycle plants at 40% to 45% thermal efficiencies and combined-cycle plants approaching 60%, their construction has been funded in country after country. On a per-kilowatt basis, they are far cheaper to construct than a nuclear or hydrocarbon-fueled steam plant.

Given the world’s current focus on sustainable or renewable energy, how do natural gas-fired gas turbines fit in? In some instances, renewable energy such as solar or wind just wouldn’t be practical without assistance from gas turbines. For instance, NorthWestern Energy is currently constructing a natural gas-fired generating station that will use gas turbines to provide fast start (and stop) "regulation service" to compensate for wind power’s unpredictability. In the company’s own words, "Because wind is difficult to accurately schedule…it is more problematic to integrate into the transmission grid." Wind has ramped up from zero to 131 MW in 10 minutes and has ramped down from 121 MW to zero MW in a similar time period.

As power production moves tentatively into a low-carbon future, or as people look for more fuel-efficient ways to cross continents, it’s a sure bet that gas turbines will be there.

[Adapted from "Air Race," by Lee S. Langston, ASME Fellow, for Mechanical Engineering, May 2010.]

As power production moves tentatively into a low-carbon future, or as people look for more fuel-efficient ways to cross continents, it’s a sure bet that gas turbines will be there.