Michael Steel, Purdue University
2007 Arthur L. Williston Award Winner


The solution to the World’s energy needs can be neatly organized into a simple timeline. This timeline has already been established by current social, political, economic, and scientific factors. The only factors that will influence the length of the energy timeline are social factors, mainly the acceptance of fusion technologies and the conversion to new types of automobiles. The science involved in the energy industry is promising as fusion technologies have been outlined and preliminarily tested. The timelines presented are not 25 year solutions, but instead are 50 year solutions. Research has shown that the complete transition to a viable energy solution is about half a century away, and composing a 25 years solution would miss the big picture of the changes that need to occur.

What makes the timelines in figures 1 and 2 realistic is the current supply and usage of petroleum, “At 2003 consumption levels, the remaining reserves represent 44.6 years of oil and 66.2 years of natural gas… figures for years of remaining reserves have remained relative constant over the past few decades as the industry has replaced consumption with newly discovered oil and gas deposits and has developed technologies to increase the amount of oil and gas that can be recovered from existing reservoirs.” ^[1] The previous statement relates the estimated amount of useful production of existing reservoirs to the amount of new reservoirs and new mining technologies created while consuming petroleum. “Three factors affect the amount of oil or gas that can be recovered from a known reservoir — rock properties, technology, and economics. While the industry cannot change the properties of the rock, it can develop new techniques to remove more oil from the rock. The industry has made significant advances to enhance recovery from known reservoirs, adding to the reserves base. When prices rise, marginal reservoirs can be developed economically, adding to the reserve base.” ^[1]

The supply of petroleum will last us, as a conservative overall estimate, 50 years. The 50 year estimate includes all petroleum obtained from reservoirs presently not being utilized. The timeline for world energy needs is divided into decades of development starting with the present. There are two separate timelines one for general electric power production that includes electricity for homes and industry. The second timeline is of the automotive industry, and it reflects some independent changes as well as changes related to the general power production timeline. The automotive timeline is created because the, “transportation sector—where there are currently no alternative fuels that compete widely with oil—accounts for about one-half of the total projected increase in oil use between 2003 and 2030.” ^[2] Another reason for the automobile timeline is that the transportation sector passed up the industrial sector as the largest energy consumer in the United States in 1990’s. ^[3]

The crux of both timelines is the development in controlled fusion reactions for power production. Fusion promises to be an environmentally friendly, economically sound, and safe method of power production. Unlike the power producing fuels used today, which are mostly limited amounts of fossil fuels and radioactive materials, the components of the fuel used to power fusion reactions are prevalent sea water. The most useful fusion reactions that are realistic options for power production involve different isotopes of hydrogen as fuel. The amounts of the needed isotopes present in seawater provide large potential amounts of energy. “For example, the amount of deuterium in one gallon of sea water would yield the energy equivalent of 300 gallons of gasoline.” ^[4] The byproducts created by a fusion reaction are helium gas and neutrons, and neither of these are considered harmful pollutants. “Scientists say nuclear fusion could provide a sustainable answer to concerns of pollution caused by fossil fuels… Fusion plants don't generate greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide -- blamed by many scientists for causing global warming -- or other gases that have harmful effects on the environment.”

In order for fusion power reactors to be built within 40 to 50 years from now, large amounts of research and testing are going to be necessary. Recently, “30 nations including China, the 24 European Union countries, India, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States… signed an agreement to build the world's most advanced nuclear fusion reactor -- the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) -- at a site in France.” ^[5] The agreement signed in November of 2006 calls for $12.8 billion to construct the world’s most advanced fusion reactor, and is a major step towards creating a viable source of energy. “Critics say that it will be at least 40 to 50 years before a viable reactor is built, if one is built at all.” ^[5] The 40 to 50 year window will allow for a smooth transition away from fossil fuels. A major concern for the movement away from fossil fuels is the transportation industry’s heavy use, but the creation of viable fusion power enables the transportation industry a viable alternative.

Hydrogen fuels cells are the long-term solution to the consumption of fossil fuels for the transportation industry. Hydrogen is merely a “clean energy carrier (like electricity) made from diverse domestic resources such as renewable energy (e.g. solar, wind, geothermal), nuclear energy, and fossil energy (combined with carbon capture/sequestration).” ^[6] The energy used to purify the hydrogen used in fuel cells will come from fusion power plants. Combining the fusion power available in about half a century with hydrogen fuel cells completely eliminates fossil fuels from the transportation industry. Another major benefit of hydrogen fuel cells is that “Fuel cell vehicles operating on hydrogen are zero-emission vehicles,” ^[6] which eliminate harmful greenhouse gas emissions.

Both timelines shown in the figures represent conservative estimates that have been described above that outline a successful transition and a nearly permanent solution to the world’s energy needs. The only remaining foreseeable transition in the energy industry is the creation of direct mass to energy converters, and is represented on the timeline by the arrow that begins beyond the scale of upcoming decades. Significant breakthroughs in subatomic particle happenings may reveal the “Holy Grail” of energy that is direct mass to energy conversion. Otherwise, all foreseeable advances and setbacks are represented on the simple timelines set forth that conclude that the world energy needs will continue to be met in the future by fusion power production and hydrogen fuel cells by providing a viable and environmentally friendly solution.

References
^[1] “How Much Oil and Natural Gas is Left?” Society of Petroleum Engineers  
      http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic/0,,1104_1008218_1109511,00.html

^[2] “International Energy Outlook 2006” Energy Information Administration. June 2006.    
      http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html

^[3] “Energy Consumption” Energy Information Administration. June 2006. 
      http://www.energy.gov/energysources/index.htm

^[4] “About Plasmas: Fusion” Coalition for Plasma Science Online. 2002.
      http://www.plasmacoalition.org/plasma_writeups/fusion.pdf

^[5] Gulati, Sunaina. “The Insider’s Guide to Nuclear Fusion”. CNN.com. November 23, 2006.
     http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/11/23/tbr.fusion/index.html

^[6] “Hydrogen” U.S. Department of Energy. 2006. http://www.energy.gov/energysources/hydrogen.htm  

^[7] “A National Vision of America’s Transition to a Hydrogen Economy – To 2030 and Beyond.”
      Results from the National Hydrogen Vision Meeting. February 2002. United States Department of   
      Energy. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/vision_doc.pdf